PERFORMANCE
OF INDUSTRIAL SECTORS IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE
Whereas
for the last 12 (twelve) years, Indonesia Composite Index (JKSE) rose from
Rp1,805.52 in early 2007 to Rp6,693.47 in 2018. Such JKSE prices were reached
in February 2018 at the same time is the highest price ever achieved by all
JKSE (all time high). The increase in JKSE price of (Rp.6,693.47 - Rp1,802.52)
= Rp.4,887.95 is equivalent to an increase of 270.72% or if averaged at 22.56%
per year.
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Pic : google image |
The
increase in JKSE was supported by the growth of 9 (nine) industrial sectors in
the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) with varying percentage increases. The
highest increase achieved by the consumption sector (JKCONS) reached 672.25%,
equivalent to the average increase of 56.02% per year. Meanwhile, the
infrastructure sector (JKINFA) is the industry sector with the lowest increase
of "only" of 62.63%, equivalent to an average increase of 5.22% per
year. JKSE growth data (increase) and 9 (nine) JKSE support industries as shown
in Table 1 below:
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Table
1: Data on JKSE growth and the industrial sector on the IDX in 2007 2018.
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Sequentially
the growth of the industrial sector on the IDX was led by the consumption
sector (JKCONS) with an average growth of 56.02% per year, followed by the
financial sector (JKFINA) of 41.03% per year, basic industry and chemical
sectors (JKBIND) 40.41% per year, miscellaneous industry sector (JKMISC) 37.59%
per year, property and construction sector (JKPROP) 32.27% per year, mining
sector (JKMING) 24.32% per year, trade sector (JKTRADE ) 22.16% per year, the
agricultural sector (JKAGRI) is 16.49% per year and the last is the
infrastructure sector (JKINFA) of 5.22% per year.
However,
the graph of the price increase did not last long because then at the close of
the last trading day at the end of 2018 JKSE dropped back to the price of
Rp6,194.50 along with the price of 9 (nine) industrial sectors which were the
pillars of JKSE. JKSE prices and industrial sector prices at the end of the
last trading day at the end of 2018 as the data in Table 2 below:
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Table
2. JKSE price data and industrial sector prices on the IDX at the close of the
last trading day at the end of 2018.
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Based
on the data in Table 2 above, the growth of JKSE for the last 12 (twelve)
years, namely the initial period of 2007 until the end of 2018 increased by
Rp.4,388.98 from the original Rp1,805.52 to Rp6,194.50. The increase is
equivalent to 243.09% or if averaged at 20.26% per year.
While
the order of growth in the industrial sector is still led by the consumption
sector (JKCONS) with an average growth of 46.22% per year, followed by the
basic and chemical industry sector (JKBIND) by 40.09% per year shifting the
financial sector position (JKFINA ) from second place to third position which
grew only 39.09% per year.
The
next sequence is the miscellaneous industry sector (JKMISC) with growth of
32.57% per year, property and construction sector (JKPROP) 22.02% per year,
trade sector (JKTRADE) 15.41% per year, mining sector (JKMING) 7 , 53% per
year, infrastructure sector (JKINFA) 3.16% per year and finally the
agricultural sector (JKAGRI) 2.37% per year.
According
to the data above, the average growth of JKCONS, JKBIND, JKFINA, JKMISC, JKPROP
is higher than JKSE growth. While the average growth of JKAGRI, JKMING, INFA,
JKTRADE, is lower than the JKSE growth rate. Especially for JKAGRI and JKINFA,
the growth rate is even lower than the annual inflation rate in Indonesia.
But
how long did the two industrial sectors (JKAGRI and JKINFA) only grow so long?
The story is different if you look at data on the movement (volatility) of the
annual price of JKSE and the price of 9 (nine) industrial sectors on the IDX
over the past 12 (twelve) years as shown in Table 3 to Table 12 below:
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Table
3. Data on JKSE price movements for the period 2007 to 2018.
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The
data in Table 3 above shows that JKSE experienced pressure in 2008 as a result
of the global economic crisis that began with the economic crisis in the United
States and its effects spread to other countries in America, Europe and Asia.
As a result of the crisis, JKSE prices fell (- 50.53%) from the previous year
(in 2007).
But
after the crisis, JKSE could rise for 4 (four) years in a row from 2009 to 2012
with the highest increase occurring in 2009 at 86.98%. In the last 5 years
(2013 - 2018), JKSE rose and fell with increases in 2014, 2016 and 2018 and
decreases in 2013, 2015 and 2018.
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Table
4. JKAGRI price movement data for the period of 2007 to 2018.
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In
Table 4 above, it appears that the increase in the average price of shares in
the agricultural sector (JKAGRI) occurred in 2007 reaching 124.95%, but then
fell sharply in 2008 by (- 66.48%) which was the lowest decline to date this
(in 2018). Although later it has increased again, but the increase until the
end of 2018 has not been able to exceed the increase in 2007.
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Table
5. Data on JKMING price movements for the period 2007 to 2018.
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The
data in Table 5 above shows that the mining sector (JKMING) experienced a
significant increase in 2007 reaching 251.54%, in 2009 amounting to 151.06% and
in 2016 amounting to 70.73%. However, the sharp decline with accumulated
declines of more than 100% occurred for 4 (four) consecutive years from 2011 to
2015.
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Table
6. Data on JKBIND price movements for the period 2007 to 2018.
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Data
in Table 6, basic and chemical industry sectors (JKBIND) decreased only in
2008, 2013 and 2015 with the deepest decline in 2008 amounting to (- 42.60%).
But in addition to these years, JKBIND always experienced an increase with the
highest increase achieved in 2009 reaching 102.93%.
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Table
7. Data on JKMISC price movements for the period 2007 to 2018.
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Data
in Table 7, the miscellaneous industry sector (JKMISC) experienced the deepest
decline in 2008 amounting to (- 54.18%), but the highest increase occurred 1
(one) year after that in 2009 reached 179.83%. In the last 12 (twelve) years,
JKBIND only dropped in 2008, 2013 and 2015, while in other years JKBIND
continued to increase.
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Table
8. Data on JKCONS price movements for the period 2007 to 2018.
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During
the economic crisis in 2008, all industrial sectors were affected, including
the consumption sector (JKCONS). But in the midst of the severe decline that
occurred in other sectors, the decline in JKCONS prices as the data in Table 8
above only amounted to (- 24.96%), far less than the decline in other sectors.
Even the decline is still below the decline in JKSE which reached (- 50.53%).
A
year after the crisis, precisely in 2009, JKCONS grew significantly by 105.39%,
and the following years JKCONS growth continued to increase. It is true that
there was a decline back in 2015 and 2018, but the decline was not significant
when compared to the gains achieved in previous years.
That
JKCONS is relatively more resilient than other sectors, and JKCONS's growth is
relatively stable with a tendency to increase. Therefore JKCONS can be
considered as one of the means for long-term investment.
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Table
9. JKPROP price movement data for the period 2007 to 2018.
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The
property and construction sector (JKPROP) according to the data in Table 9
above experienced the deepest decline in 2008 as big as (-58.73%), however in
the following years JKPROP could rise again, and the highest increase occurred
during the presidential election campaign 2014 reached 55.76%. During the
presidential election campaign, construction shares were indeed the prima donna
along with the campaign for the construction of road infrastructure, dams,
airports, etc. which are jobs in the business fields of construction companies.
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Table
10. Data on JKINFA price movements for the period 2007 to 2018.
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Unlike
construction stock issuers, although the infrastructure development campaign
during the 2014 presidential election was one of the trending topics, the price
movements of shares in the infrastructure sector (JKINFA) as well as the data
in Table 10 above were not very significant. The increase was only 24.71%,
still inferior to the increase in 2009 of 48.57%. PGAS, TLKM, JSMR, TBIG, GIAA,
ISAT, EXCL shares are in the JKINFA sector.
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Table
11. Data on JKFINA price movements for the period 2007 to 2018.
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Based on the data in Table 11 above, that even though 2008 was a crisis
due to the collapse of financial institutions in the United States and Europe,
the effect was not too significant for financial institutions (banking) in
Indonesia. Data shows that the decline in the prices of shares at JKFINA was
only (-32.67%), and even a year later (in 2009) it rebounded with an increase
of 70.94%. JKINFA is occupied by large banks in Indonesia including BBRI, BMRI,
BBNI, BBCA.
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Table 12. JKTRADE price movement data for the period 2007 to 2018.
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Like
other industrial sectors, the trade sector (JKTRAD) as the data in Table 12
above dropped sharply in 2008 to reach (- 61.78%), but two years later namely
in 2009 and 2010 JKTRADE rose significantly by 85, respectively. 91% and
71.92%. AKRA, ACES, ERAA, HERO shares are part of JKTRADE residents.
Based
on the above, the movement (volatility) of the share price of the issuers of
each industrial sector for the last 12 (twelve) years (2007 - 2018) is very
diverse. Therefore, in investing, besides taking a long time, you must
recalculate stock valuations periodically (for example every semester),
especially when stock prices have risen significantly.
In
the context of the price volatility referred to above, even though our
investment has only been running for 1-2 years in a stock, if the market price
of the stock has risen far higher than its real value (book value) or has far
exceeded overvalued, at that time consider selling it immediately.
That
JKSE price movements correlate with the share price movements of issuers which
are the occupants of 9 (nine) industrial sectors which are the pillars of JKSE
itself. Correlation of the price movements of both as illustrated in Table 13
below:
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Table
13. Correlation of price movements of the industrial sector with JKSE for the
period 2007 to 2018.
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In Table 13 above it appears that when JKSE increased in 2007, in 2009,
in 2010, and in 2016, all industrial sectors also rose and at the time of
decline (decline) in 2008 and 2015, all industrial sectors come down too
(inline). But in other years there were several anomalies, both positive
anomalies and negative anomalies, as follows:
a. In 2011 JKSE went up but JKAGRI, JKMING and JKFINA actually declined (negative
anomalies).
b. In 2012 JKSE experienced an increase but JKAGRI and JKMING declined
(negative anomalies).
c. In 2013 JKSE dropped but JKAGRI, JKCONS, JKPROP, JKINFA and JKTRAD
went up (positive anomalies).
d. In 2014 JKSE experienced an increase but JKMING actually experienced
a decline (negative anomaly).
e. In 2017 JKSE experienced an increase but JKAGRI and JKPROP actually
dropped (negative anomalies).
f. In 2018 JKSE dropped but JKMING, JKBIND, JKMISC and JKFINA actually
rose (positive anomalies).
Industrial sectors that have inline price movements and always have
positive anomalies with JKSE are JKBIND, JKMISC, JKCONS, JKINFA and JKTRAD.
This means that when JKSE experienced an increase or decrease, the five
industrial sectors experienced an increase or decrease as well, but also
occurred when JKSE declined, the five industrial sectors continued to rise.
The industrial sector with inline price movements and sometimes positive
or negative anomalies with JKSE is JKAGRI, JKMING, JKPROP and JKFINA. This
means that when JKSE experienced an increase or decrease, the four industrial
sectors experienced an increase or decrease as well, but also occurred when
JKSE rose, the four industrial sectors even declined, or vice versa when JKSE
dropped, the four industrial sectors actually rose.
Based on the description above, hopefully the industry sector can be
selected which you think is prospective and appropriate to be used as a means
of investment, and then if you are sure of the industry sector of your choice,
then look for issuers who become leaders in the industry sector of your choice.
Thus, hopefully useful.
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